Japan's next Prime Minister Fumio Kishida may have little choice but to sell more government bonds to fund his pandemic-relief package worth hundreds of billions of dollars, even if it scrapes together money left over from previous stimulus programmes.
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A former foreign minister known as a proponent of fiscal reform, Kishida won the ruling party's leadership race on Wednesday, assuring him of being chosen as prime minister next week due to the party's majority in parliament.
Keen to give the pandemic-hit economy a quick boost, Kishida pledged to compile a stimulus package worth several tens of trillion yen - at one point flagging a size of around 30 trillion yen (US$270 billion).
Some of the package could be funded by shifting nearly 20 trillion yen left over from past stimulus programmes, though that alone likely won't be enough, analysts say.
"If Kishida wants a 30-trillion-yen package, he needs to issue about 9-12 trillion yen worth of new bonds," said Chotaro Morita, chief bond strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.
Noriatsu Tanji, chief bond strategist at Mizuho Securities, predicted fresh bond issuance of less than 10 trillion yen.
That would add to a record 221 trillion yen in bonds scheduled to be issued in the current fiscal year to March 2022, straining Japan's already tattered finances and casting doubt on Kishida's image as a fiscal conservative who has long called for the need to reign in the country's massive public debt.
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